All construction developers need to do is fill up the vacant ones. They are doing that maybe too well, according to Art Castle, executive vice-president of the Kitsap Homeowner’s Building Association.

“One of the growing problems is finding lots to build on,” Castle said. “The scarcity is already resulting in a cost appreciation of lots. Since 1994 we’ve consumed more lots than were created; it’s averaged 1,100 more a year.”

New home construction is expected to experience a downturn in 2002, though direct causes are hard to come by. Castle has some ideas though.

In the 1999-2000 year, the last period for which figures are available, the average price for a new home in unincorporated Kitsap County was $233,000, Castle said. The average family income in Kitsap County is $50,000.

“(Average prices) have most certainly gone up now and that means people who live in this area cannot afford to move into them,” Castle said. “New regulations have made new construction more costly. That’s not to say they’re all bad but it’s something everyone has had to live with.”

As a rule of thumb, houses are priced about four times as much as the cost of developing the land they sit on.

“So then you’re looking at $250,000 as the low-end of the market. You can see the problem. As prices go up new home purchases go down since people must save longer to afford one.”

The lack of open space is something constantly under review. Castle said Kitsap County planners are wrapping up a buildable lands inventory, which “may or may not help the problem.”

“It will give us a clearer picture,” he said, “of what we’ve got out there.”

A stakeholders advisory group is also set to release a report in the form of a proposed ordinance on affordable housing to county commissioners in late September.

Castle does not see an easy solution.

A sudden surplus of empty lots would reverse the trend of high prices for the consumer, but builders would be hit.

“To take a wild extreme, if you permit out 10,000 lots all of a sudden that’s a lot of empty land that will stay empty too long,” Castle said. “It’s difficult to strike a balance.

“We are reaching a critical point but this time next year it’s not too much to think we’ll have a solid idea on where this county is headed.”

(Temple A. Stark is a free-lance writer living in Port Orchard. Reach him at writer@harbornet.com).