In the upcoming election, at least in my view, the President’s unpopularity coupled with the local Republicans’ inability to attract moderate candidates should help the Democrats increase their stranglehold on both houses of our legislature.

Locally, in the 23rd District, moderate incumbent Republican Bev Woods has her hands full with challenger Christine Rolfes. The Democrats are pulling out all the stops for the former Bainbridge Island city council member. I’ve heard that even Congressman Norm Dicks is quietly applying pressure on centrist Republicans to support Rolfes.

First-term Democratic incumbent Sherry Appleton should be vulnerable over her boneheaded attempt to hand the Suquamish Tribe a bunch of our tax money to fund purely pork barrel — and highly questionable — political payback reservation projects. She has the construction unions, who supported and worked hard to help elect her, livid over her venomous stand against NASCAR. Luckily for Appleton, most north end voters haven’t ever heard of Republican Earl C. Johnson.

The 26th District, which spans portions of both Pierce and Kitsap counties, is certainly the most entertaining. In the Senate race, perennial Republican candidate Lois McMahan will probably take out political newcomer Jim Hines in the primary, despite Hines’ endorsement by retiring Senator Bob Oke and the Pierce County Republican Party.

Look for Democrat Derek Kilmer to bury McMahan — but not for good — she will undoubtedly resurface in 2008. State level Republican insiders believe McMahan can’t win, and are furious with her for refusing to either step aside, or run for the House seat left open by Kilmer’s move up.

The party is backing Hines because leaders are certain McMahan will deliver that seat to Kilmer for as long as he wants it. Also, considering Oke’s medical condition, her announcing a year before he even retired is considered an inexcusable, callous and highly insulting faux pas.

In the 26th District House races, Gig Harbor Republican Beckie Krantz, who owns a business tracking legislation for politicians nationwide, presents a formidable challenge for Democratic incumbent Pat Lantz, who just barely beat a moderate Republican last time. This one could go either way.

A moderate Republican could stand an even chance of winning Kilmer’s former House seat, but I expect 71 year-old Democrat Larry Seaquist to prevail. Not because he’s a particularly stellar candidate, he just has no credible opposition. Seaquist’s Republican challengers are Trent England, a 20-something lawyer with strong ties to the conservative wing of the national party, and Ron Boehme. My personal impression upon meeting England was that of a young egotist who’ll be insufferable by the time he’s 50. Boehme meanwhile, sounds like a graduate from the McMahan-Craswell school of religious politics.

State party leaders asked England to step aside, dangling a plum job in front of him as an incentive, after lining up a centrist they felt certain could beat Seaquist. England’s ego wouldn’t allow that — and then Boehme jumped in. The moderate in question pragmatically walked away from a certain primary quagmire. Seaquist will steamroller whichever one of this duo survives.

In the 35th District, Republican Randy Neatherlin presents what is perhaps incumbent Democratic Representative Bill Eickmeyer’s first serious challenge. This one could get real interesting.

Senator Tim Sheldon remains in the crosshairs of his own party. Democratic leaders are enraged the maverick centrist ignores marching orders from party headquarters, voting his constituent’s wishes instead. That often means voting with Republicans against Democratic tax and spend measures. It’s no secret the Democrats have literally spent years desperately trying to enlist almost anyone to oppose Sheldon. Kyle Taylor Lucas, former Governor Gary Locke’s executive director of the Governor’s Office of Indian Affairs, finally succumbed to the temptation.

Lucas still owns a home in Tumwater — but now also leases one in Shelton. She says with a straight face she wasn’t recruited specifically to challenge Shelton. If you’re gullible enough to believe that, there’s some prime swampland in Florida you should look at.

“Follow the money,” was the advice the infamous “Deep Throat,” gave Woodward and Bernstein to help them crack Watergate. That advice also makes PDC reports interesting reading. In the 26th, McMahan’s contribution flow seemingly makes it appear her running for office is the family business. Seaquist’s money has mostly come from the Washington DC beltway, and California contributors, while England’s campaign shows a negative balance. In the 23rd, Appleton’s PDC’s are filled with tribal and public-sector union donors, while Rolfes’ reads like a Who’s Who of the environmental movement. Makes you wonder what kind of ROI is expected from those that win.

Finally, one more thing…

Wayne Hower, the man who killed South Kitsap store owner Al Kono in cold blood, was allowed to plea-bargain his charge from aggravated first-degree murder down to second-degree murder with a firearm. He was sentenced to 23 years and four months. The 45 year-old killer will be out of jail at age 68 — if, and it’s a big if, he even serves the entire sentence.

There’s no way former prosecutor, Dan Clem would have plea-bargained a cold-blooded murder. Clem always tried those cases personally — and never lost. Meanwhile, Prosecutor Russ Hague has a track record of plea bargaining rather than going to trial. After losing the slam-dunk, Buddy the police-dog case — which he tried to blame on Judge Anna Laurie — does Hague even have confidence in his own ability to win a high-profile case like Kono?

Hague owes the citizens of Kitsap County a public apology for allowing Hower to get off so lightly.