One of the most interesting things about Seattle pollster Stuart Elway’s latest poll on how the congressional vote might go in this state is that while Democrats and Republicans each lead in four districts, with one even, independents outnumber the political parties in four and statewide when they’re all added up.

But there is a plus or minus factor of 14 points, which is a much wider margin than the usual 4 or 5 percent allowance for people who might vote one way or the other. That, Elway tells me, is because it was a statewide poll of only 400 people, or 45 interviews per district. “If we had done just one district of 300 to 400 people, it might be real useful for congressional purposes,” he said.

This poll, taken in March, shows that 31 percent of the respondents statewide identify with the Republican Party, 34 percent with the Democrats and 35 percent with neither, and consider themselves independents. In 1998, an Elway poll put the Republicans at 25 to 26 percent, Democrats at 32 to 33 percent and independents at 35 to 37 percent.

“The party identifications remain relatively steady,” said Elway. “But that is as of now. The vote moves around and will continue to move around from now to November.”

Ok, the Democrats have six incumbents with three safe districts and one close one, one tie and one trailer. Rep. Jim McDermott of Seattle is the big D with 62 percent of his 7th district constituents in the Democratic fold versus 11 percent Republicans and 27 percent independents. If he lost all the independents he’d still win.

Same goes for the 1st District’s Rep. Jay Inslee of Bainbridge Island who has 51 percent Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 27 percent independent. If all the independents joined all the Republicans, they couldn’t top Inslee’s majority.

Rep. Norm Dicks of Belfair, dean of the state delegation, is looking at 42 percent Democrats, 22 percent Republicans and 36 percent independents in the 6th district. Put the R’s and the independents together and he’d be in trouble. It’s much closer than that for Rep. Rick Larsen of Everett in the 2nd district, with 31 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 40 percent independents.

Rep. Adam Smith of Kent wound up in a 33-33 percent split between the parties and 34 percent independents. He’s got work to do to keep the 9th district Democratic.

Now for the Republicans. Rep. Jennifer Dunn of Bellevue can draw on 53 percent Republicans against 22 percent Democrats and 25 percent independents in her 8th district. She’s safe.

Doc Hastings of Pasco leads in the 4th district with 38 percent Republicans, 27 percent Democrats and 35 percent independents. Like Dicks and Larsen, he’d be in trouble if the D’s and independents voted together. But that won’t happen.

Same goes for George Nethercutt of Spokane whose 5th district yielded 36 percent Republicans, 18 percent Democrats and 46 percent independents.

So for the final tally, Democrats have dibbies on the 1st, 6th and 7th and will have to fight to keep the 2nd, 3rd and 9th districts. Republicans won’t have to sweat the 8th but need to shore up their forces in the 4th and 5th districts.

Independents outnumber either party in the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 9th.

Independents or third party candidates can’t or, let’s say, rarely get elected but they can wreak havoc by filing in the close districts, which is how Inslee got elected.

A third party candidate pulled just enough votes to let Inslee inch ahead of Republican Rick White. Of course, White’s divorce had to have something to do with it. That’s always a possibility — that a personal problem can knock out a seemingly unbeatable candidate, unless it’s a Kennedy or a McDermott, in which case anything goes.

(Adele Ferguson can be reached at P.O. Box 69, Hansville, Wa., 98340.).