We’ve been hearing a lot these days that the prolonged economic slowdown we are experiencing is the “new normal.”

Washington’s chief economic forecaster, Dr. Arum Raha, says it will be 2013 before employment returns to 2008 levels.

If that’s the case, then we can also assume that companies won’t be adding lots of new capacity until 2013 and beyond. Existing underutilized facility space and a fairly large regional inventory of vacant manufacturing and office properties will accommodate this three-year stretch of moderate growth.

So what’s that mean for the economic development of Kitsap County? No business recruitment opportunities? No diversification from dependence on the Navy? No new local job opportunities for the many folks who must commute by ferry each day?

Call me inattentive to economic realities, but I’m staking my faster-recovery bets on the Puget Sound Region and the Kitsap Peninsula. Here’s why.

First, we tend to confuse economic diversification by defining it as the bucket of companies who aren’t in the bucket of companies selling to the Navy. The reality is that Kitsap County has a very diverse business base, many of which also sell to the government. The diversification push isn’t just recruiting in lots of more companies, although that is part of the strategy. It may have as much to do with diversifying the customer base for companies, thereby slowing the revolving door of good businesses that come and go once the Navy work is completed. Diversify their sales opportunities here, and there is less reason to move on when DOD work subsides. Difficult as that is, it’s easier to retain them than it is to recruit them. And the job growth will happen faster.

Second, a study commissioned by Microsoft last year suggests the technology sector will emerge faster than many other industries. The hardware, software, monitoring devices, applications, and new technologies will be required purchases as many companies reposition for growth. Most companies won’t risk their competitiveness with outdated equipment, processes and information if they can afford the upgrades. Kitsap benefits in two ways: we have an impressive list of established and emerging companies in the technology sector: Avalara, Paladin, Distributed Energy Management, Azima DLI, InTheWorks, Kombi, and many more. And, many of Kitsap County’s incredible talent pool will land jobs with other technology companies in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties, putting them back to work faster. We are already seeing growth in software. More people working will create more sales in housing and retail, faster.

Third, geographic proximity to the economic influences of King, Snohomish and Pierce counties impact us. Aerospace is also on the rebound, and many Kitsap businesses have sold into the supply chain. The tanker contract also will be a major recovery jump-start if Boeing wins it. Just as growth of East Sound and South Sound companies create employment opportunities for West Sound residents, business growth there creates sales opportunities for our companies.

Fourth, never to be forgotten in a discussion of the economy is that the Kitsap Peninsula will always be a highly desirable place to visit, and to live. Out-migration is an unlikely phenomenon; more in-migration isn’t. Recall a few months ago that Bloomberg Businessweek forecasts the Bremerton-Silverdale housing market to be the fastest growing in value in the nation through 2014. If that holds, housing construction will return, though access to financing could still be difficult. As the economy improves in King and Snohomish counties, the Kitsap Peninsula visitor business will benefit as well.

And here comes the USS Nimitz, a Navy aircraft carrier arriving in December for a 16-month maintenance period. With it come the crew and many families, which should bolster retail spending as well as housing occupancy fairly quickly. Also arriving is more contract work.

We know recovery will be a long haul, but I wouldn’t want to be anywhere else for the journey. The distance is shorter from here.